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Live TV on Xbox 360 launching in 20 countries with 40 content partners

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 11:06pm CEST par Tim Conneally

Microsoft on Wednesday announced it will be rolling out an update to Xbox Live that brings live streaming pay television to the Xbox 360 without any additional hardware required.

Microsoft first launched live TV on the Xbox 360 to limited audiences last year, and earlier this year announced its intention to bring live TV to a broader range of XBox Live subscribers in the fall (i.e. now).

Today, Microsoft announced its partnerships with around 40 content providers in more than 20 countries, including Bravo, Comcast, HBO GO, Verizon FiOS and Syfy in the U.S.; BBC in the U.K., Telefónica in Spain; Rogers On Demand in Canada; Televisa in Mexico; ZDF in Germany; and MediaSet in Italy. Live TV services will begin rolling out to Xbox Live subscribers during the holiday season.

Each provider is supplying something different to the service, so it will not be a uniform experience for all users. Verizon FiOS subscribers, for example, will have access to live streaming channels, while Comcast subscribers will only have access to its catalog of on demand titles.

The live television element that Xbox Live will get is worthy of consideration because linear content streaming is still, after many years, only a developing method of content distribution.

Roku's popular Netflix set-top box debuted its first linear streaming channel earlier this year, and just three months ago added a Foxnews.com channel which is sort of a hybrid live/on demand channel, including live broadcasts at certain times of day, and on-demand content for the rest.

But live content distribution puts extremely heavy load on the data networks, especially during the "prime time" hours, and with 30 million Xbox Live members, a popular live TV show could be disruptive.

Robert Levitan, CEO of Content Delivery Network service provider Pando Networks, said "The demand for high quality online media content in the US currently overwhelms existing network capacity during peak hours. I am excited and glad to see this new Microsoft offering, but satiating the demand of 30 million Xbox users will further overwhelm network infrastructure. The topology of existing networks is not elastic to meet spikes in demand even if they can be anticipated during certain time periods."

Mark Taylor, Vice President of Media and IP Services at Level 3 Networks doesn't think 30 million users will make too tremendous of a difference to the overall performance of a given network.

"The thing that affects the network capacity is the number of concurrent users - the number of people streaming at the same time. I don't think that this new service from Verizon will approach the popularity of either Hulu or Netflix in terms of concurrent users so there should be no problem with network capacity. Verizon has a CDN built into their network for this sort of delivery. Today we are delivering services on behalf of people like Netflix and we get real time data from every single client device - the vast majority of streams in the US are sustained at the highest bit rate (around 3Mbps) and never experience a buffer or stall."

How, then would a live TV streaming service effect the total traffic on Xbox Live, which is largely dedicated to live gaming?

"This sort of service imposes different challenges to gaming. Yes this sort of service will generate a higher number of bits (bandwidth) than most gaming applications (services like Gaikai may change that in the future). However, for hosted games it is vitally important that the latency is very low," Taylor said. "That is the response time between the gamer pressing a key on a control pad and the sever that is hosting the game. Although both the sheer number of bits delivered by streamed videos and the low latency response times needed for gaming are made possible by CDN infrastructure, the actual technologies utilized are different. Both are hard, which is why there are only a few successful CDNs."
Is Zune a dead parrot? Microsoft can't decide

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 8:04pm CEST par Ed Oswald

The Zune saga continues. Is the music player really dead? The drama got a little weirder today, as Microsoft seems to be making a concerted effort to erase any evidence that it said Zune hardware is finished. Passed on. No more. It has ceased to be. It's expired and has gone to meet its maker. It is a late media player. An ex-media player, if you will.

A support page which said that the company was focusing on Windows Phone for entertainment and "will no longer be producing Zune players" was deleted from its website (see the cached version here). Furthermore, in a tweet from the official Zune Support team, it continued the walk back.

"We are still supporting the Zune HD hardware. No official info has been released stating hardware is being discontinued," support representative "SM" said in a tweet. Thus, as official as it seemed being on Microsoft's Zune website, now we're being told that's not the case.

Moral of the story here? Not even Microsoft knows the status of its music player that seemingly is the tech world's equivalent of the Energizer bunny.

We contacted Microsoft and finally got a response nearly three hours after posting. And that post to the Zune site? Microsoft says to ignore it. When questioned by Betanews on its mixed messages this week and if the post to the support mistake was a mistake, Zune support representatives said yes. "It appears to be the case," tweeted "SM." "We apologize if you felt misled by this."

Misled? I'd say!

So what could be the reasons for the apparent confusion in Redmond?

The first may be that the page could have been released to the public before it was intended. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Zune hardware will be phased out, and this will eventually occur.

The second is that Microsoft does not want customers considering the Zune yet to skip purchases, which would create a glut of all-but useless players on the market. Yes, Zune Pass is getting cheaper, but the "cool" factor is arguably no longer there.

Finally, it could really signal an internal struggle within Microsoft itself. While there is no evidence this is happening, the company has spent millions on the platform and may want to give it another go.
25 days left for HP's board to decide the future of its PC business

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 7:18pm CEST par Tim Conneally

According to statements made by Hewlett Packard's new CEO Meg Whitman yesterday, the fate of HP's Personal Systems Group could be sealed by the end of October.

HP's board of directors has been strategizing effective "alternatives" for the PSG (also known as the group that handles the company's market-leading consumer hardware), and announced on August 18 that these alternatives could include a separation of its PC business into a separate company through a spin-off, outright sale, or other transaction.

"The best thing we can do is to get to a decision on PSG as fast as possible," said Whitman, in the conference call when she took the helm at HP a little under two weeks ago. "This decision is not like fine wine. It's not going to get better with age."

HP says the Personal Systems Group is worth approximately $41 billion, and according to market research firms IDC and Gartner, it remains the world's number one PC vendor in terms of shipment volume and market share. However, the global PC market is suffering through a period of heavily diminished demand due to excited consumption of smartphones and media tablets.

"While PCs will continue to be much-used devices, they’re no longer at the leading edge of computing," said Mark Dean, IBM's CTO for the Middle East and Africa in August. "They’re going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records ... and incandescent light bulbs."

Six years ago, IBM went through the same thing HP is going through now. When it sold its Personal Computing Division to Lenovo in 2005, it was worth $180 billion. Lenovo paid IBM just $1.25 billion and took on IBM's $500 million financial liabilities. In turn IBM took an 18.9% ownership stake in Lenovo, which has been decreasing as the years pass.

HP will post its fourth quarter earnings on Monday, November 21, so an October decision for the future of the PSG will have some impact on the company's 2011 numbers, even if the actions aren't expected to take place until 2012 or 2013.
Thunderbird 8 Beta released -- get it now!

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 6:59pm CEST par Nick Peers

Mozilla has unveiled the next two pre-releases of its messaging client. Thunderbird 8 Beta follows sibling browser Firefox 8 Beta in changing the way it handles add-ons. Other changes are less noticeable. Attachment lists are said to be more accessible, while a number of unspecified platform fixes and user interface tweaks have also been implemented.

The key change in Thunderbird 8 is how it handles add-ons. Like Firefox 8, add-ons installed by third-party programs will now be disabled by default -- the user will be prompted to review and enable the add-on manually the first time Thunderbird runs after it’s installed. The add-on can also be managed from the Add-ons section of the program.

Similarly, when a major new update of Thunderbird is released, a screen inviting the user to select their add-ons will be displayed, allowing them to review what’s installed and enable selected add-ons. Add-ons not yet compatible can be set to enable automatically when a compatible update is applied.

Also released is Earlybird 9.0a2, the pre-release alpha version of Thunderbird. No release notes are provided with this version, and after a cursory glance we couldn’t discern any notable new features, making it likely this will be a largely maintenance release when it occurs.

Both Thunderbird 8 Beta and Earlybird 9.0a2 are available as open-source downloads for Windows, Mac and Linux. The release date for the final versions of both Thunderbird 8 and Firefox 8 is slated for 8^th November.
Samsung seeks to block iPhone 4S sales in France, Italy

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 6:45pm CEST par Ed Oswald

Samsung is using Apple's release of the iPhone 4S on Tuesday as a way to gain increased leverage in the heated patent battle underway between the two companies. On Wednesday, it filed requests for an injunction banning the sale of the device in both France and Italy.

The choice of these two countries is not by accident: patent laws in both allow for an affected company to request injunctive relief before an infringing product is officially released. That said, it's not unreasonable to believe that Samsung may look for injunctions elsewhere once the iPhone 4S ships.

"Apple has continued to flagrantly violate our intellectual property rights and free ride on our technology," Samsung said in a statement announcing the effort. "We believe it is now necessary to take legal action to protect our innovation".

Samsung says the infringing technology, which involves the "reliable functioning of telecom networks and devices", is so egregious that it should be barred from sale. Two patents are listed in the legal filings.

The company is in dire need of some leverage in its battle with Apple. In Australia, Apple has rejected the company's efforts to settle there on the basis that Samsung was attempting to dictate terms for settlement when it was the infringing party; and in Europe Apple has generally prevailed in its efforts.

Samsung has had some help in the United States though: both Verizon and T-Mobile have come to its aid in defending it against a similar suit here which could halt the sale of the 10.1-inch version of the Galaxy Tab tablet and several handsets.

Photo Credit: JustASC/Shutterstock
Need drive imaging on the cheap? Try Macrium Reflect Free Edition 5

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 4:45pm CEST par Nick Peers

Paramount Software (UK) Ltd has updated Macrium Reflect Free Edition, its free-for-personal-use drive imaging tool, to version 5.

Macrium Reflect Free Edition 5.0.4033 sports a completely redesigned drag-and-drop user interface, plus adds a number of new features, including the ability to clone drives, set alternate backup locations and create WinPE-based recovery media, allowing users to recover from USB 3.0 drives outside of Windows.

The biggest change in version 5 is the new user interface. This has been completely overhauled to provide a more user-friendly front end to the program, with wizards featuring drag-and-drop support to help users select drives to back up and restore.

Macrium Reflect Free Edition 5 also supports a direct disk cloning option, which copies drives and partitions directly from one disk to another. Users can now also specify multiple backup locations, making it easier to alternate backups to different drives, adding another layer of protection to the user’s images.

The Free Edition, which doesn’t support incremental or differential images, or the ability to back up individual files and folders (this functionality requires upgrading to a paid-for version), also adds support for WinPE-based recovery discs. This feature is new to the free version, and requires an additional 1.7GB download; alternatively the user can create a Linux-based recovery disc with less functionality.

Version 5 follows somewhat tardily three months after the Standard, Pro and Server editions of Macrium Reflect were updated, but does at least include all incremental updates that have been released since the paid-for versions made their initial appearance in July. These include numerous bug fixes along with a smattering of new features, including enhanced USB3.0 support for the WinPE rescue disc as well as options to suspend or shut down the computer once a backup has been completed.

Macrium Reflect Free Editon 5 is a free-for-personal-use download for PCs running Windows XP, Vista or 7, and the installer includes both 32-bit and 64-bit builds.
Tired of bloated security suites? Try Webroot SecureAnywhere

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 3:56pm CEST par Mike Williams

Webroot is describing its new SecureAnywhere 2012 range as being “the fastest and lightest virus and spyware protection you can buy”. And while this sounds like more security company hype, on first glance at least it looks like they may have a point.

The core antivirus engine is a compact and ultra-lightweight cloud-based affair, which makes smart choices about the files it checks to minimize scan times. Webroot say this means system scans will typically be under two minutes, something that we confirmed (they were closer to 30 seconds on our test PC). And the program is very careful about its use of RAM: we found it peaked at around 50MB when scanning, and when idle was closer to 5MB (private working set).

Yet despite this compact framework, there are still plenty of useful features to be found here.

Webroot SecureAnywhere AntiVirus 2012 ($39.95) provides real-time protection, on-demand and scheduled scanning, some browsing protection, a sandbox, the ability to prevent malware from changing your settings, and more.

Webroot SecureAnywhere Essentials 2012 ($59.95) takes that core package and adds a firewall, privacy tools, a phishing filter, and 2GB of online server space to use for file synchronization or basic backups.

And the high-end package, Webroot SecureAnywhere Complete 2012 ($79.95) further adds password management, extends your online backup space to 10GB, and perhaps most importantly, offers additional security packages for both iOS and Android devices. These will variously scan your apps for threats, block dangerous website and secure your online transactions, and if you’ve a 3G or 4G device can also try to locate a lost device, and even wipe it remotely.

The SecureAnywhere range is lacking in a few areas. In particular, there’s no spam filter or parental controls, which can leave the programs looking a little expensive.

Still, if you’re tired of your system being weighed down by bloated security suites then there’s plenty to like here. All the packages really are fast and lightweight, and for the most part you’ll be able to use your system without knowing they’re running.

What’s more, both SecureAnywhere Essentials 2012 and SecureAnywhere Complete 2012 actually are licensed for installation on up to 3 PCs, so if you’ll use all those, and perhaps the mobile security features, then the price begins to look much more reasonable.

Either way, SecureAnywhere represents a major and very interesting revamp of the Webroot range, and is definitely worth a closer look. Trial versions of all three SecureAnywhere packages are available now.
I'll buy the iPhone 4S, and so should you

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 2:52pm CEST par Ed Oswald

Woe is you.

You've waited 16 months for this announcement, and all you get is a stinking upgrade to the iPhone 4? You know, that doubling of processor speed and drastic increase in graphics handling isn't enough. The fact that CDMA customers will have worldphone capability thanks to dual-mode functionality? Pshaw.

Honestly folks, lets get real here. Apple certainly set the precedent with the iPhone 3GS that it plans to ride out designs for more than a year, giving them a speed bump mid-run. This is smart: it gives Apple more time to focus on creating truly innovative designs as well as separate features enough that each device can stand on its own.

I'll be the first to tell you that I'm not a big fan of the iPhone 4's design: I just think it does not reflect the true ingenuity of Apple's design team. But what they've put into the iPhone 4S in all honesty has made this a much bigger leap forward than we saw from the iPhone 3G to the 3GS, and has made it attractive enough to even myself.

Just look at the specifications: 8-megapixel camera with 1080p HD video recording capability. A combined GSM and CDMA phone. Up to eight hours talk time. Dual-antenna capabilities that push the limits of 3G to 14.4Mbps. Yes it's not real "4G," but it's going to be the fastest 3G phone out there.

Give Apple credit. They all knew LTE wouldn't be ready in time for the company to release a phone based on it, and battery life on LTE phones stink. Apple is going to squeeze as much as they can out of the 3G network before making the switch without much compromise.

Say "What?"

Siri is probably the biggest reason why you should upgrade, though -- it is for me. Watching the demonstration of this, I'm very excited about Siri. Android users are quick to argue that the platform has voice commands, too, but that's not what this is (iOS 4 did too, so what's it to you?).

Please read counterpoint: "You can have iPhone 4S, I'll take Samsung Galaxy S II"

Instead you are able to communicate with the device in a more natural manner. Ask it questions, tell it what you need. That's a real advancement in how we interact with our smart devices and sets the bar higher for its competitors. Is it gimmicky? Yeah probably, but hey if you can do mundane tasks without ever needing to touch a button I'm all for it.

Star Trek anyone?

Could Apple have reached for the stars here and given us our mythical teardrop wide-screened iPhone 5? Of course it could but it wouldn't have made sense. Why release a completely new design without a major advancement like LTE included? It would have cheapened the allure of any future device once it's announced, and probably also hurt potential sales.

LTE (or heck, WiMAX) doesn't matter my friends, as it's a gimmick at this point and inaccessible to the large majority of us. Apple is showing restraint by not releasing a half-baked product just to play tit for tat with Android.

Bottom line, the 4S returns Apple to a position among the best smartphones available whether it has 4G or not. While it's not what the technorati wanted, that really doesn't matter. Apple needs to focus on the average consumer first, rather than the gotta-have-it crowd: they're not dealing with multiple manufacturers here, just themselves.

Look at the announcement of a free iPhone 3GS and a $99 iPhone 4 (hey, wasn't Best Buy offering the 3GS free in August?). These are announcements aimed not at us, but your everyday consumer. Android can no longer claim the mantle of the cheap smartphone anymore. That's a wise business move.

In many cases, the iPhone 4 will surpass almost every competing Android device at the same price point. And the 3GS, while certainly aging, will be satisfactory for the basic smartphone user and still runs iOS 5.

There's really nothing to be disappointed about here. The iPhone 4S is a worthy phone, and if you have Apple as your horse in this smartphone race you should be applauding this strategy.

I am, and I will certainly be preordering my iPhone 4S this week. If you're eligible too, there's no good reason why you shouldn't either.

Editor's Note: Ed is upgrading from iPhone 3GS.
You can have iPhone 4S, I'll take Samsung Galaxy S II

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 2:51pm CEST par Joe Wilcox

I suspected for some time that rumors of iPhone 4S were correct. That meant, based on past Apple release schedules, the new handset would be more evolutionary than revolutionary and likely nothing more than catch-up to newer Android models from HTC and Samsung. So on Sunday, while the InterWeb filled with excitement and speculation about iPhone 5, I trucked over to AT&T and bought Samsung Galaxy S II, which went on sale that day.

Apple announced iPhone 4S yesterday, and I have no regrets choosing the S2. I have absolutely no interest in Apple's new handset and wouldn't if I still owned iPhone 4. For Android users tempted by Apple marketing, don't be. Nexus Prime is coming, and Galaxy S II is here now. It's an exceptional smartphone by most every measure. With iPhone 4S, Apple is the innovation follower, not leader here.

Not that I'm surprised. Yesterday afternoon, my colleague Tim Conneally writes: "Judging by this season's iPod refresh, unveiled on Tuesday, Apple isn't trying to change anything about its market-leading portable media players yet". Later chat to Tim: "I could plagiarize your first two paragraphs to describe iPhone 4S". I chose to quote him instead, but the same observation applies to iPhone 4S. There isn't much new here. Apple is following where others have tread.

Incremental Improvements

In March, I explained why iPad 2 isn't so radically different from the original. Apple follows a longstanding pattern: A showstopping product debuts with modest hardware features but something else nevertheless killer -- something people want, or think they do. Apple then iterates -- incrementally improves -- the product over time. The process is essential to maximizing margins. So the original iPhone was good and the 3G better, 3GS better still and the 4 much better, by iteration.

Actually, iPhone 4 qualifies as a major redesign, resetting the incremental process at a higher level and starting it over. iPhone 4S clearly follows the approach of incremental development, by offering small improvements with substantial benefits, without dramatically changing basic form and function. It's the approach I expected, which is major reason for my ignoring the much crazed iPhone 5 hype and rumors.

Please read counterpoint: "I'll buy the iPhone 4S, and so should you"

Not surprisingly then, iPhone 4 and 4S are nearly indistinguishable at first glance. The case designs are identical, screen sizes are the same and display resolution and pixel density are unchanged as are overall device functions. But as analyst Ian Fogg points out in a comment to one of my Google+ posts: "There is new hardware. Everything about the iPhone 4S is new apart from the screen and industrial design. It has new dual mode radios, new chipset and baseband, new dual-core CPU, new dual-core graphics, larger 64GB capacity option [and more]".

Catch-up and Copycat

But there's more than the typical incremental improvement process here. Android and Samsung's Galaxy S series lept ahead of iPhone and iOS. In July, I identified five things that iOS borrows -- my polite way of saying copies -- from Android. That's the short list.

While Apple files patent and other intellectual property claims against Samsung, iPhone 4S reveals the real copycat right down to "S" in the product name. It's iPhone 4S pitted against Galaxy S II. This kind of confusing competitive product naming has gone on for years, particularly around similar version numbers. Apple is but one of many vendors doing this.

Meanwhile, Apple has chosen to catch up to competitor features. So like the S2 and some other high end Android smartphones iPhone 4 features an 8MP camera that seemed simply amazing during yesterday's launch event -- but in reality not so remarkable. Apple marketing chief Phil Schiller touted the 8-megapixel camera that produces 3264 x 2488 pixel images that can be printed 8 X 10. Oh yeah? The S2 camera also is 8MP and produces same resolution images that can be printed the same. In a brilliant marketing move, Schiller compared time to first shot -- 1.1 seconds for iPhone 4S and 2 seconds for Galaxy S II. That comparison avoids the stickier issue of photo quality. Now why is that?

Galaxy S II is loaded with some surprising photo features, such as adjusting focus to macro or face detection, setting exposure compensation, choosing ISO (auto to 800), enabling blink detection or changing focus point (by dragging with your finger), among other features. The smartphone shoots 1080p video, another catch-up feature for iPhone 4S. Both phones come with photo- and video-editing software. I snapped the quick shot of the Android collectible using the S2 camera.

Both phones have dual-core processors, robust graphics capabilities, capacitive touchscreens and high-resolution displays. Like its predecessor, Apple's Retina display has 960-by-640-pixel resolution at 326 ppi. The S2's resolution is less -- 800 x 400 at 218 ppi. However, Samsung's proprietary Super AMOLED Plus display is brighter and produces richer contrast and more vivid colors. There is simply no comparison which display pops when the Galaxy S II sits alongside iPhone 4.

Geek Nirvana

Apple finally supports pseudo-4G on iPhone; 4S' top bandwidth is 14.4Mbps, or double its predecessor. But my Galaxy S II can do 21Mbps and the T-Mobile model twice that. Apple's and Samsung's smartphones are both rated for 8 hours continuous talk time. S2 battery life is exceptional, and in my two days use significantly longer than iPhone 4. There's another catch-up feature.

iPhone 4S has Bluetooth 4.0, which is a nicety. The S2 is considerably larger because of its display (4.27 inches compared to 3.7 inches for iPhone 4S) but lighter. Some people are enamored by iPhone 4's Siri voice command/interaction feature. Android has had voice dictation and command capabilities since before iPhone 4 shipped in summer 2010. It's another catch-up capability.

The point: Galaxy S II is as good or much better than iPhone 4, which major features play catch-up or copycat. The T-Mobile model, which goes on sale October 12, might be the best smartphone available, with its 1.5GHz dual-core Snapdragon S3 processor and other features. This Engadget headline makes the point: "Samsung's Galaxy S II for T-Mobile proves that unicorns do exist". Engadget got a review unit; I didn't. But I could say the same about the AT&T model, which is fast and fluid -- really unbelievable.

I haven't enjoyed using a cell phone this much or had such a "wow" experience in years. The original iPhone would be closest. I'll explain more in my upcoming review why Galaxy S II is so good. CNET gives the AT&T S2 "editor's choice", by the way.

I even like Samsung's TouchWiz UI, which adds lots of color and freshness to stock Android, without slowing it down -- to my surprise.

While unboxing and using Galaxy S II for the first time, I had such a laugh thinking about Apple accusing Samsung of copying iPad and iPhone. The S2 and iPhone 4/4S don't look alike, by styling, design or size -- and most certainly not by user interface. TouchWiz is colorful and distinctive compared to iOS. Then there are the many customization features exposed by Android or TouchWiz not available to iPhone users.

I've achieved geek nirvana using Samsung's flagship smartphone. Enjoy your life with the Pod people. I aspire for something more. You can have iPhone 4S, I'll take Galaxy S II.

Photo Credits: Joe Wilcox
iPhone 4S is a worldphone that's not, but sales will still rocket

Publié: octobre 5, 2011, 1:28am CEST par Ian Fogg
Apple’s product announcements are a tale of two iPhones: the iPhone 4States and the Immortal 3GS.

Today at Apple’s annual event, new CEO Tim Cook unveiled evolved iPods, a new dual-core iPhone 4S, and the voice-controlled virtual assistant based on Apple’s acquisition of Siri. He also recapped on iOS 5 and iCloud which were announced back in June. Although Apple sells two-thirds of their iPhones outside the US, I fear that the most innovative new parts of the iPhone 4S product design will appeal most to a US audience. Apple will still do well globally, but it could do even better with some tweaked product thinking.

Much more significantly, Apple now is moving to a three iPhone model portfolio: Apple will continue to sell both last years’ iPhone 4 and the previous years’ iPhone 3GS at cheaper price points. This will dramatically boost Apple’s phone sales volumes and enable Apple to compete head on with more Android smartphones.

The Immortal iPhone 3GS

The decision to keep on the 3GS as well as the old iPhone 4 is a massive move for Apple. It will extend the iPhone competitive threat to rivals into the mid tier of the mobile market. Apple’s competitors have often sidestepped the full force of the iPhone threat by positioning their models as cheaper phones. That strategy is now being squeezed and may become untenable in the US market.

Apple is positioning to counter Android with the new pricing and continued use of the iPhone 3GS.

Apple is motivated by great margins and not premium end user prices. If Apple can deliver keen prices to grab a market without sacrificing margins they will. The growth of the iPod product portfolio over the years as Apple’s economies of scales have enabled them to maintain margins yet lower prices demonstrates Apple’s aspirations: the new 2011 iPod Nano is the cheapest Nano Apple has ever launched. As the iPhone 3GS is so old, component prices will have fallen and Apple will have steadily improved manufacturing to minimize defects.

Those that are disappointed by the iPhone 4S’s identical appearance to its predecessor forget the success that its forerunner model enjoyed and in fact still enjoys. Back in 2009 there were similar comments to those being made today: Then, the new iPhone 3GS looked just the same as the older iPhone 3G. Those people were wrong then and so are they now:
- The iPhone 3GS sold over 30 percent more than its predecessor in its first year.
- The 3GS is still on sale today as Apple uses it to spearhead a move into the mid-tier and target more of the 95 percent of the handset market that doesn’t yet belong to Apple.
- iOS 5 runs on the iPhone 3GS. In other words it’s still being supported and will run the very latest Apple software.
In a market where product life cycles are often weeks, not months, and certainly not years, it is astonishingly impressive that a phone that’s over two years old is still a part of Apple’s phone portfolio.

The iPhone 4States

The iPhone 4S update copies the iPhone 3GS precedent. It has a completely different design under the bonnet despite having the same screen and exterior industrial design. It’s actually a greater change as the 4S boasts a vastly improved camera with full 1080p image stabilized video recording, as well as better low-light performance with 8 megapixel stills, and delivers such a jump in processing power that makes possible the radically differentiated voice virtual assistant.

Make no mistake, the iPhone 4S will sell amazingly well. Its predecessor’s sales have been increasing quarter-on-quarter the longer it has been on sale, although the competition has been launching new smartphones continuously. In Q2 2011, Apple sold 20.3m iPhones compared with just 14.1m a year earlier when the iPhone 4 went on sale. The 4S is a better phone. It will sell in vast numbers.

But the iPhone 4S has two key innovative features that set it apart from the transition from the iPhone 3G to the 3GS. Both of these will help Apple most in the US, and not globally:
- The voice-powered intelligent assistant the users speak to. Based on technology acquired with Siri, the assistant allows users to talk and set up calendar appointments, search for restaurants, or check the weather, among many other tasks. While this is a feature that demos amazingly well and is strongly differentiated from rival smartphones, it will only be available in three languages initially: English, French and German. But by December, the iPhone 4S will be on sale in 70 countries. Most won’t benefit from the stand out iPhone 4S feature that Apple dwelled on in their presentation.
  A key benefit from Siri technology will be in-car usage. The assistant will, I understand, work with Bluetooth headsets and in-car speakerphones. If so, this hands-free mode will have tremendous appeal in the US. It’s much more important than in Europe. US citizens drive twice as much as Europeans. In the most recent years for which data is available US inhabitants drove over 3,000 billion miles compared with 308 billion in the UK. That’s ten times as many miles in the US, although the US has only five times the UK’s population. (1)
- Worldphone radios, ie a dual-mode CDMA and GSM design. This means the iPhone 4S will work on almost any mobile network globally. In Europe this has no impact as all mobile operators use GSM style networks. In the US, this will help the CDMA carriers -- Verizon and Sprint -- and their subscribers. Now, a Verizon iPhone 4S customer will be able to use their phone in Europe, Africa, Asia -- virtually anywhere. But, of the iPhones currently being sold in Q2, only 11 percent were activated on Verizon. Apple is in danger of designing for the minority.
Both iPhones Will Be Massive Successes

Despite all the caveats, this will be a huge year for Apple. The iPhone 3GS sets out Apple’s intent to grow strongly from its 5 percent mobile phone market share now. As Tim Cook explained, he could have used a more impressive sounding figure to present Apple’s market share. Rather than show iPhone volumes as a proportion of total phones, he could have compared iPhone sales with the much smaller smartphone market. He didn’t. Apple’s opportunity is much greater than the current smartphone market as all phones are becoming smart.

The iPhone 4S will sell well, too. Despite appearances, it’s a totally different phone from last years’ iPhone 4. Only the screen and the case are the same. And, remember, the 15-month year old iPhone 4 has still proved to be the one to beat in the market.

But even I have doubts this time. Apple is in danger of reversing the 80:20 rule and designing for a US minority rather than the global market. It won’t prevent another successful year ahead for Apple in mobile, but Apple could be doing even better, if that’s possible.

(1)
Sources:
UK, 2010 data: [www2.dft.gov.uk]
US, 2007 data: [bts.gov]

Ian Fogg is a mobile industry analyst, consultant and product manager. He is a former principal at Forrester; research director at Jupiter Research; and marketing and/or product management at Psion, 3/Hutchison and Cable & Wireless Communications.