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  Apple sells 2 million iPads, but should anyone get excited?

  Publié: mai 31, 2010, 8:44pm CEST par Joe Wilcox

  By Joe Wilcox, Betanews

  Apple is celebrating Memorial Day with a little memorial to iPad: Announcement of 2 million units sold in about 60 days. Typically, in Apple parlance, sold means shipped. However, given short supplies, the stated number is probably closer to sold, depending on how much Apple stocked the international channel for the weekend launch.

  Assuming an average selling price of just $500 -- and I expect it's more likely $600 or $650 -- iPad has generated at least an additional $1 billion in revenue for the company. For the full quarter just passed, Apple shipped 1.15 million desktop Macs, so already iPad has nearly doubled sales there. Desktop Mac sales generated $1.5 billion in revenue. Within weeks, if not already, iPad revenues this quarter will exceed desktop Mac for calendar Q1. Impressive.

  Today at Business Insider, Jay Yarow put context relevant to Apple investors: "In a note from April 14, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty estimated 'every 1 million incremental iPad units and related accessories equates to $0.20-$0.25 EPS.' So Apple could be adding $0.75 EPS for the quarter."

  The question everyone should ask: Will iPad outsell the Mac during its first quarter of sales? Apple has nearly 30 days left in the quarter. The only impediment iPad seems to have is supply. More people want to buy iPad than Apple can ship. With the international sales channel open, 3 million units are absolutely possible during the quarter.

  Lines were surprisingly longer in Europe than the United States for iPad, or so I gauge from the overseas' reports. That doesn't surprise me. According to both Gartner and IDC, netbook sales have been stronger in Europe than any other region, mainly because of carrier subsidies. Netbooks are available subsidized with carrier commitments. In looking over the UK 3G iPad plans, I see that the four major carriers offer more flexible plans than for netbooks, many without commitment and some plans available on single-day basis. The scenario is different than the United States, where most netbooks are sold for higher prices, unsubsidized by carriers. If iPad is going to suck away netbook sales anywhere, it will be Europe.

  Given Apple's sales milestone, it seems appropriate to look back at some of my past iPad stories. So here are 20 for your Memorial Day reading pleasure:

  • Is iPad cannibalizing Windows PC sales?
  • Will iPad cannibalize Mac sales?
  • Will you buy an iPad?
  • We asked: Did you buy iPad -- and you answered!
  • 7 people who are returning their iPads
  • 10 questions to ask before buying iPad
  • Usability expert faults iPad user interface, calls it "whacky"
  • What 1984 Macintosh marketing reveals about iPad
  • iPad isn't for everyone, so deal with it
  • Is iPad just a proof-of-concept device?
  • Apple should ban freebees from the iPad App Store
  • Apple's problem with Flash is mobile applications competition
  • So, iPad will change the PC industry? Yeah, right
  • 12 reasons why I won't buy an iPad?
  • Apple iPad was my idea
  • Hey, Apple, Microsoft, mobile multitasking is a necessity
  • Who should buy the iPad? Hint: People of a certain age (and that's not you)
  • Will iPad bomb or be the bomb?
  • The world doesn't an Apple tablet, or any other
  • Steve Jobs' 'Thoughts on Flash' is just smoke

  So, what do you think? Does it matter that Apple sold 2 million iPads in about 60 days? Is there an iPad in your future? Please respond in comments.

  Copyright Betanews, Inc. 2010
  
  
  
  Apple - Steve Jobs - Microsoft - United States - IPad
• 

  Steve 'Ballmer's Reality Distortion Field is overheating'

  Publié: mai 31, 2010, 4:51am CEST par Joe Wilcox

  By Joe Wilcox, Betanews

  Monday Note has a nasty indictment of Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's ability to deal with reality. In post, "Ballmer just opened the second envelope," Jean-Louis Gassée writes about a different kind of Reality Distortion Field. The concept is normally applied to Apple CEO Steve Jobs and his ability to get just about anyone to believe anything. Gassée applies the Reality Distortion Field to Ballmer as a form of denial. He doesn't accept the reality of Microsoft or its failure to truly innovate under his decade-long leadership.

  "Microsoft shareholders ought to worry about Steve Ballmer's own distortion, and about the self-inflicted effects of such a strong field," Gassée writes today. "We all remember Vista, it was a godsend for Apple. Did Ballmer acknowledge that there were problems? What about the Xbox 360 reliability nightmare? The apologies were left to underlings.

  "Then Google comes out of nowhere to take 65 percent of the Search market, leaving Microsoft with an Apple-like market share (I'm referring to Macs, not iPods). In MP3 players, Microsoft failed again and again in its attempts to unseat the dominant (65 percent market share) iPod/iTunes combo. Social networks? A tiny investment (1.6 percent) in Facebook. And where is Microsoft in the Microblogging world, a.k.a Twitter? Nowhere, the old Microsoft Messenger is fading away."

  Gassée is a former Apple executive and founder of Be, which produced the ill-fated BeOS. He is now a venture capitalist. He later asserted in today's post: "Ballmer's Reality Distortion Field is overheating."

  Yesterday, I asserted that "Steve Ballmer IS the right man to turnaround Microsoft mobile." In view of Gassée caustic analysis, one reader asked by e-mail: "How can you counter this guy's arguments?" I won't. Gassée's points are all valid, and I made some of them yesterday, too.

  To the reader, I responded:

  Ballmer's the right man or he's finished at Microsoft. He fails at entertainment and mobile and it's game over. But I still contend it will take a master salesman with a CEO's stature to get Microsoft the partnerships necessary to give Windows Phone 7 the slightest chance. Microsoft has already lost the mindshare war, which means those deals will be tough getting. Microsoft needs Ballmer to get them.

  I wrote "The Windows is era is over" for a reason. Microsoft already is too far behind in mobile and cloud services now. I've been meaning to write about Ray Ozzie [Microsoft's Chief Software Architect] for some time. He was Bill Gates' boy. Notice how you don't hear too much from Ozzie anymore or the cloud services vision he espoused? The Office and Windows hawks won. Microsoft's services strategy is now reduced to being Office and Windows extensions. Microsoft can only go the way of IBM now.

  Ballmer deserves the chance to fail at Microsoft mobile, or succeed if he can get beyond the denial. In Ballmer's defense, he inherited a mature rather than a growth company. Gates' aggressive competitive style suited growth Microsoft, but not really the more mature company. Growth companies look for new customers, while mature companies seek to keep them. The marketing approach is different. Microsoft needed a salesman, someone attuned to customers, to keep reselling the same products to the same people over and over.

  He succeeded. Do the math. For 90 days. Microsoft reported $14.5 billion revenue and $4.01 billion net profit for first calendar quarter. But the majority of that profit comes from Office and Windows. They were cash cows when Ballmer took over as CEO in 2000, and they're bigger cash cows today. First calendar quarter 2000, Microsoft reported $5.56 billion revenue.

  Another CEO might have failed. Ballmer was the right man to take over Microsoft in 2000. He kept the same customers buying over and over again. Granted, Microsoft's stock is pretty much nowheresville over the decade. The question: Is he the right man to lead Microsoft in the 2010s? I predict that Ballmer's managing of Microsoft's mobile crisis will give the answer.

  I get lots of e-mail or read plenty of Betanews reader comments demanding Ballmer's head. Oh yeah? Then answer me this: Who would you have run Microsoft? Please answer in comments.

  Copyright Betanews, Inc. 2010
  
  
  
  Apple - Steve Ballmer - Microsoft - Steve Jobs - Microsoft Messenger